Australian A League · resolved market
Brisbane Roar FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd003f0baf5c7972249eeb2b9bbbde758e4f59ad6b9182c55280d8e7ed20062d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,420 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x479e…91c3backed Under | 62c | 3,000$1,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,153.02 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 2,121$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.89 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Over | 34c | 1,331$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 38c | 960.04$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.93 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 37c | 841.71$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.88 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 31c | 816.1$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.34 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Under | 65c | 760.54$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.19 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 27c | 740.93$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…6d3bbacked Over | 45c | 450$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 70c | 433$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.9 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Over | 30c | 375$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 46c | 369.57$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 68c | 368.5$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.92 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 72c | 250$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.34 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 31c | 250$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 132 | 43.2%57 W · 75 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 67c | 223.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +6.7wins | +0.24per pick | 55cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 26c | 215.38$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Over | 25c | 210$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 31c | 202.54$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 51c | 195.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 31c | 167.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed Under | 58c | 159.06$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Under | 58c | 152.09$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 30c | 150.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 30c | 149$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…ae45backed Over | 9c | 148.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 32c | 143.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb792…fa38backed Over | 35c | 111.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac33…dbc9backed Over | 38c | 110$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 31c | 105.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Over | 29c | 103.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 38c | 101.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 39c | 94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…ac5ebacked Under | 71c | 82.48$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 43c | 78.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d12…a4c4backed Over | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 30c | 73.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 30c | 68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked Over | 28c | 66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 57c | 65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 31c | 59.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 66c | 59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13c6…3520backed Over | 51c | 51.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ad…9d51backed Over | 42c | 47.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 72c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 43c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…ffc6backed Over | 46c | 43.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 31c | 41.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…a426backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Under | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 68c | 34.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Brisbane Roar FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-1.5)Brisbane Roar FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.