TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Dayton Flyers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Dayton Flyersof Dayton Flyers, UNCW Seahawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$70,412

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,412 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7b47…d615backed Dayton Flyers53c13,555$7,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,370.9874051.5%381 W · 359 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3233…a4ddbacked UNCW Seahawks49c9,956$4,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,878.51560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed UNCW Seahawks47c7,025$3,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,318.4625145.8%115 W · 136 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked UNCW Seahawks56c3,932$2,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,216.761,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Dayton Flyers53c3,486$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,625.8819958.3%116 W · 83 L+15.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Dayton Flyers48c3,144$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,644.74,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked UNCW Seahawks47c2,440$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,135.8733438.9%130 W · 204 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Dayton Flyers49c2,403$1,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,216.6212,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed UNCW Seahawks46c2,389$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.735,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed UNCW Seahawks64c2,108$1,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,343.281,07443.3%465 W · 609 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked UNCW Seahawks47c1,518$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.12,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked UNCW Seahawks47c1,464$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.985,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed UNCW Seahawks46c999.97$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.9935147.6%167 W · 184 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Dayton Flyers53c991.28$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.91060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed UNCW Seahawks64c949.31$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.472,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed UNCW Seahawks56c784.59$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.323,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe87d…9906backed Dayton Flyers53c467.59$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.771770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+36.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked UNCW Seahawks47c389.6$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.1139454.6%215 W · 179 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Dayton Flyers49c323.96$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.6519147.6%91 W · 100 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Dayton Flyers53c313.63$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.3511456.1%64 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed UNCW Seahawks47c210.91$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1322047.7%105 W · 115 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x87b8…29dcbacked Dayton Flyers54c188.35$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.6412147.9%58 W · 63 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed UNCW Seahawks47c122.76$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.762451.1%319 W · 305 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Dayton Flyers51c118.65$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.1452843.6%230 W · 298 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90df…a209backed UNCW Seahawks47c105.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.563537.1%13 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed UNCW Seahawks47c104.4$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0716650%83 W · 83 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Dayton Flyers48c101.14$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9233445.5%152 W · 182 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2442…0c2bbacked Dayton Flyers51c97.18$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6214051.4%72 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked UNCW Seahawks47c88.72$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.729650.7%150 W · 146 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed UNCW Seahawks52c75$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3914461.8%89 W · 55 L+0.7wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Dayton Flyers55c63.59$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9157655%317 W · 259 L+17.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed UNCW Seahawks47c59.51$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9727650.7%140 W · 136 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e2a…a58dbacked Dayton Flyers54c56.32$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.657856.4%44 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e72…54f0backed UNCW Seahawks45c55.07$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.788543.5%37 W · 48 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Dayton Flyers44c54.18$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.351,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8a25…3c70backed Dayton Flyers54c53.92$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.813357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf15…bc03backed UNCW Seahawks54c48.31$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.995265.4%34 W · 18 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Dayton Flyers51c47.65$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3561652.8%325 W · 291 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed UNCW Seahawks46c42.68$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4621342.3%90 W · 123 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Dayton Flyers51c35.56$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.427044.3%31 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed UNCW Seahawks47c34.6$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.261,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked UNCW Seahawks46c34.19$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.734,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x461b…30ddbacked UNCW Seahawks47c31.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.871450%7 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca20…7b68backed UNCW Seahawks48c31.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.954748.9%23 W · 24 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x434e…7454backed Dayton Flyers55c29.74$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.381346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Dayton Flyers53c29.57$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.853767.6%25 W · 12 L+5.3wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+22.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2841…3c5abacked Dayton Flyers44c29.4$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.454334.9%15 W · 28 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-23.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Dayton Flyers51c23.37$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4533058.2%192 W · 138 L+24.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0e4a…fcd8backed Dayton Flyers53c22.19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.357962%49 W · 30 L+7.7wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+13.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbe2…5981backed UNCW Seahawks49c20.87$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.234042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x912c…f468backed UNCW Seahawks55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5308…3221backed Dayton Flyers54c19.83$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.122365.2%15 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.