MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1f7b19438ceab8e17853daabbafa35c3e58ad78ea517e672204e8c9bf9e43cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Milwaukee Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 4,682$3,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,184.07 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -6.9wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 61c | 1,661$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.69 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 1,613$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.09 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 1,444$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.55 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 712.43$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.47 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 701.71$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.32 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Boston Red Sox | 54c | 243.1$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.83 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 216.18$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.81 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 54c | 200.31$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 192.08$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.77 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 186.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.7 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 186.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.7 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 186.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.7 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Boston Red Sox | 32c | 186.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.7 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…6d55backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 186.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.7 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 186.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.7 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 186.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.7 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 186.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.7 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Boston Red Sox | 32c | 186.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.7 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 186.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.61 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 66c | 185.06$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.14 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 183.21$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.58 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 183.21$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.58 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 183.21$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.58 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Boston Red Sox | 32c | 183.21$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.58 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Boston Red Sox | 32c | 178.65$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.48 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 177.05$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.23 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Boston Red Sox | 32c | 175.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.36 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 164.76$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.9 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Milwaukee Brewers | 63c | 159.66$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.59 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 152.88$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.84 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 145.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.98 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…e66abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 69c | 142.46$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 118.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.72 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 63c | 117.32$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.91 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 103.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.53 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…acafbacked Boston Red Sox | 32c | 103.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.53 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Boston Red Sox | 38c | 96.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 83.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 82.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 82.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 73.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 73.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Boston Red Sox | 32c | 58.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 58.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 49.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 45.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Boston Red Sox | 51c | 42.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Boston Red Sox | 33c | 40.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Boston Red Sox | 38c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 36.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 34.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 30.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Boston Red Sox | 41c | 26.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Boston Red Sox | 48c | 25.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…be97backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 23.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x543d…b27abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 16.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 15.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 162 | 74.1%120 W · 42 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.