MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6c0e6d70447b1c57a366c3ed0047b04945b898be1993fec11934f5aa4bc343c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 60c | 1,061$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.88 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…6a33backed Over | 43c | 886.62$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.5 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Over | 44c | 558.58$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.77 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 58c | 296.75$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.04 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 31c | 258.72$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.22 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 70c | 227.16$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.3 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 58c | 224.96$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 31c | 219.51$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.63 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 41c | 156.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 142.56$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 56c | 125.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.36 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 59c | 124.64$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 70c | 114.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Over | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 57c | 69.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 34c | 69.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8943…6c65backed Over | 43c | 67.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 33c | 63.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 33c | 58.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 58c | 51.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b71…9fcdbacked Under | 61c | 48.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52cb…4007backed Under | 54c | 44.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under | 62c | 35.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Over | 43c | 33.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 62c | 31.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 58c | 30.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f98…ec35backed Over | 43c | 29.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 78c | 22.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 60c | 21.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 57c | 19.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49d…91a8backed Under | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.