Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1f944f2540b9c1b88f66cc769567d728ec07dbf38b328e2a4d8b1c004511ef0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 3c | 3,782$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 14c | 856.53$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.26 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 10c | 838.97$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.77 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 757.69$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 19c | 716.72$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.48 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 7c | 672.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e9…fba8backed Yes | 6c | 658.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8171…66a5backed Yes | 9c | 624.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 554.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 12c | 440.19$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed Yes | 9c | 387.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 14c | 361.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Yes | 21c | 327.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 16c | 323.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 301.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4862…4420backed Yes | 10c | 266.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 4c | 261.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 217.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057b…9819backed Yes | 7c | 202.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 6c | 181.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 8c | 170.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 15c | 167.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 19c | 154.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 8c | 148$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e7…0788backed Yes | 11c | 137.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 11c | 133.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 16c | 124.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…a2b6backed Yes | 18c | 124.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 124.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 26c | 123.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Yes | 25c | 104.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 16c | 104.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 101.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 27c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 13c | 99.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 14c | 93.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…ce8fbacked Yes | 21c | 89.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 14c | 87.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x952f…73c5backed No | 73c | 85.4$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee7a…b68dbacked Yes | 22c | 83.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x894e…fb17backed Yes | 23c | 65.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 67c | 47.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 50c | 33.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7e…3ddcbacked Yes | 49c | 28.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 77c | 23.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8371…947fbacked No | 71c | 20.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 80c | 17.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.