Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6372543bcce950b9dfcb1f6f91740b3cb4236dd935a91b5abdf313d7fab1a9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 75c | 819.46$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.88 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 647.39$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 29c | 638.78$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.61 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 18c | 637.2$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.64 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 16c | 582.33$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.68 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 9c | 575.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5020…9aabbacked Yes | 5c | 498.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 463.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 20c | 404.17$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.37 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…c641backed No | 78c | 349.85$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.78 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 336.89$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 304.24$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 12c | 264.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 40c | 236.02$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.96 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 13c | 229.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 19c | 221.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 17c | 213.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 24c | 194.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 30c | 186.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked No | 78c | 186.84$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 37c | 184.88$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.41 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 7c | 174.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 10c | 169.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 41c | 153.66$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.11 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 147.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 74c | 145.8$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 145.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 37c | 145.13$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.14 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 26c | 140.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 68c | 133.29$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 132.03$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 11c | 131.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 35c | 130.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 36c | 128.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4968…cda7backed Yes | 28c | 124.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 122.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 109.59$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057b…9819backed Yes | 13c | 107.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…5d22backed No | 73c | 103.05$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe43d…3978backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 79c | 99.84$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 60c | 99.18$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…4bb2backed Yes | 25c | 97.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 39c | 97.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 62c | 96.18$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 94.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 32c | 93.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 78c | 93.09$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 70c | 92.45$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed No | 76c | 83.91$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7969…9fecbacked No | 72c | 83.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…af3bbacked Yes | 38c | 83.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 34c | 82.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 82.47$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 82.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…4785backed Yes | 30c | 79.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 33c | 74.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…a2b6backed Yes | 23c | 68.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b153backed No | 73c | 68.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb6…337fbacked No | 76c | 64.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 18c | 63.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 41c | 63.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 65c | 62.81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…2e20backed No | 59c | 62.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 28c | 61.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 70c | 60.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 31c | 60.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked Yes | 34c | 56.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 34c | 55.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 32c | 54.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 30c | 52.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 75c | 50.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe423…2492backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b1…369abacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed No | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.30per pick | 49cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 61c | 49.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 45c | 49.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 36c | 48.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed No | 62c | 45.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 26c | 44.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 35c | 43.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…877cbacked No | 76c | 41.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20aa…aae4backed Yes | 25c | 40.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9c…e333backed Yes | 37c | 39.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed No | 65c | 39.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked No | 76c | 39.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 26c | 39.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed No | 63c | 37.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b3…532cbacked No | 62c | 37.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 63c | 36.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe418…f304backed Yes | 38c | 36.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 33c | 30.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 36c | 30.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.