Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cb6d9f00ca43d3ccd6cfd7507be610fd58f20b41685a86c5706c57552c85869
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8371…947fbacked No | 10c | 1,579$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.91 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 46c | 803.39$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.55 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 757.62$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 46c | 634.93$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.39 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 48c | 523.74$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.96 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 471.7$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 31c | 415.83$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 17c | 371.66$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 26c | 367.66$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.68 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Yes | 59c | 325.16$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.36 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 19c | 301.24$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 63c | 285.33$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 32c | 280.44$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.77 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 68c | 258.53$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.01 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 40c | 249.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.67 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 246.67$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 244.22$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.2 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 6c | 235.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 231.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.9 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…4785backed Yes | 56c | 226.44$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.57 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 77c | 215.04$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.63 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 71c | 194.95$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.78 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x58af…1250backed Yes | 55c | 184.75$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 181.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 23c | 179.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.7 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 19c | 178.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 32c | 175.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 46c | 168.03$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.82 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 75c | 163.69$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.8 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 30c | 161.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.22 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 31c | 159.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 67c | 153.97$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.53 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked No | 57c | 153.78$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.66 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 58c | 151.26$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.73 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 72c | 136.77$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.87 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 70c | 134.78$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…ad06backed Yes | 66c | 132.14$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 26c | 131.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa268…d3ebbacked Yes | 69c | 126.13$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 124.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 48c | 116.46$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.62 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 116.26$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.62 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 54c | 97.3$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 23c | 95.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.68 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 44c | 94.42$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 70c | 93.31$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 20c | 92.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 40c | 90.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed Yes | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 39c | 87.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 87.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d0abbacked Yes | 77c | 81.04$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…ce8fbacked Yes | 60c | 80.59$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed Yes | 24c | 75.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.01 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 60c | 74.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8171…66a5backed No | 42c | 72.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 57c | 72.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 70.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.91 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 77c | 69.91$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 67.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 35c | 67.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 41c | 66.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 70c | 66.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 66.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed No | 62c | 65.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 63c | 61.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 32c | 59.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b153backed No | 73c | 58.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c00…9901backed Yes | 32c | 58.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 59c | 57.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b7…629abacked Yes | 75c | 56.84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb0…4397backed Yes | 33c | 56.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…7efcbacked No | 53c | 53.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…4e57backed Yes | 75c | 52.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 39c | 52.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…4bb2backed Yes | 69c | 52.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 51.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…b413backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked No | 72c | 49.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 43c | 48.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x287c…81b2backed No | 73c | 48.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 46c | 47.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 32c | 46.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 24c | 46.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 34c | 43.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced1…f456backed Yes | 62c | 43.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 33c | 39.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 74c | 39.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 50c | 39.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…376ebacked Yes | 62c | 38.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe509…7387backed Yes | 28c | 37.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 75c | 37.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34be…0885backed No | 33c | 37.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…7310backed No | 38c | 34.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f8…44e5backed No | 60c | 34.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.