Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2030661318d982dca1c31388c2347a18c4b4334f7c7486b001ffb3565159504
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 1c | 8,346$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 4,002$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b8…8665backed No | 1c | 1,587$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 8c | 553.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 41c | 317.9$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.55 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 266$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 219.1$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 66c | 217$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.66 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4f…b7b7backed No | 9c | 203.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 73c | 173.1$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f9…1783backed No | 11c | 168.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 76c | 164.28$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…d5f8backed No | 26c | 156.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 48c | 152.59$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.43 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 65c | 130.64$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 110.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 26c | 102.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 56c | 81.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b84…75aebacked No | 33c | 79.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 73c | 76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 33c | 69.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 80c | 66.06$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 65c | 44.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 68c | 43.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf56…4678backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 80c | 39.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 48c | 30.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 27.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 78c | 27.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…ed2abacked Yes | 45c | 26.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 65c | 24.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac44…f420backed Yes | 48c | 24.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c17…42adbacked No | 64c | 23.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…bc41backed Yes | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 72c | 16.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 14°C or below on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C or higher on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.