College Football · resolved market
Spread: Vanderbilt (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd20a031113560fb46e2da6a6f471db193b44b98da7e01adcd60f400bd7cdf018
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vanderbiltof Vanderbilt, LSU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e3a…4033backed LSU | 54c | 6,275$3,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,388.52 | 193 | 62.2%120 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Vanderbilt | 46c | 4,507$2,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,414.02 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Vanderbilt | 46c | 3,729$1,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,013.34 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Vanderbilt | 50c | 2,877$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,438.5 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed LSU | 53c | 2,005$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.6 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked LSU | 50c | 1,300$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked LSU | 49c | 1,198$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.98 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed83…a91fbacked LSU | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18d6…5d93backed Vanderbilt | 51c | 985$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e15…665bbacked Vanderbilt | 48c | 900$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf050…91debacked LSU | 52c | 900$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed LSU | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 148 | 36.5%54 W · 94 L | -11.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed LSU | 51c | 756$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.56 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Vanderbilt | 49c | 661$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.09 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed LSU | 40c | 529.26$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Vanderbilt | 59c | 413.65$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.49 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe4…ba0ebacked Vanderbilt | 48c | 390$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd97e…0b97backed LSU | 52c | 390$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed LSU | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Vanderbilt | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…ab9dbacked LSU | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56bb…8e6bbacked LSU | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Vanderbilt | 50c | 62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked LSU | 50c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…3f15backed LSU | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Vanderbilt | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Vanderbilt (-2.5)this page
- LSU vs. VanderbiltVanderbilt won
- LSU vs. Vanderbilt: O/U 47.5Over won
- LSU vs. Vanderbilt: O/U 48.5Over won
- O/U 49.5Over won
- Spread: Vanderbilt (-1.5)Vanderbilt won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.