Asian League · resolved market
Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-04-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd20c5be00bdb0830322d22bd76c6c740989f7b89451129d7b215c041432ac9fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc699…7961backed Yes | 19c | 7,676$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,431 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Yes | 17c | 2,941$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.98 | 137 | 46.7%64 W · 73 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 10c | 400.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 488 | 67.8%331 W · 157 L | +68.5wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x57f7…ae57backed No | 16c | 300$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.42per pick | 16cpaid | +242.1%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 18c | 299.23$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 158 | 26.6%42 W · 116 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…bd4abacked Yes | 10c | 287.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 49c | 287.04$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.15 | 152 | 40.1%61 W · 91 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 10c | 207$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 14c | 203.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd785…0d7ebacked Yes | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 15c | 173.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 205 | 20%41 W · 164 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0864…0f54backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Yes | 19c | 72.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8c…5e69backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 22c | 48.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed Yes | 24c | 46.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 531 | 48.8%259 W · 272 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f47…742ebacked No | 78c | 18.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 79c | 17.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-04-19?this page
- Will Gamba Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-04-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.