Asian League · resolved market
Will Gamba Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x014dd4527bd461df5bdeb96411b10ca0b5965c79059621bde2b4dae8553c8db5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7681…ac03backed No | 22c | 5,991$1,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328.99 | 88 | 14.8%13 W · 75 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed Yes | 37c | 4,054$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,554.01 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 67c | 3,846$2,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.45 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 55c | 2,144$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.88 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 30c | 2,004$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394.86 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 28c | 1,713$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.14 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf61c…9ad2backed No | 30c | 1,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ea…2f4bbacked Yes | 78c | 1,290$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddaf…3de6backed Yes | 27c | 1,084$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 20cpaid | +262.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…1ad5backed No | 1c | 1,010$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 63c | 878$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.35 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed No | 73c | 688.95$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 137 | 46.7%64 W · 73 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 50c | 651.56$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.69 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Yes | 39c | 548.34$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.34 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Yes | 54c | 353.73$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.55 | 69 | 24.6%17 W · 52 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 71c | 344.83$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 53c | 300$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.82 | 487 | 68%331 W · 156 L | +69.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…cfffbacked Yes | 80c | 213.51$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked No | 15c | 202.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked No | 19c | 192$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 23c | 168.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 152 | 40.1%61 W · 91 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked No | 67c | 165.85$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.1 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 80c | 143.69$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 1,306 | 56.9%743 W · 563 L | +67.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 59c | 134.28$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c6…64b1backed Yes | 78c | 128.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 26c | 113.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f1…c252backed No | 33c | 112.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed No | 57c | 106.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…4af5backed No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c7…4459backed Yes | 63c | 78.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 30c | 73.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 158 | 26.6%42 W · 116 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba2…eb93backed Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 28c | 69.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 29c | 69.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 37c | 66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 720 | 44.2%318 W · 402 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60e7…3f3fbacked Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 34c | 54.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Yes | 29c | 49.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 72c | 49.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked No | 52c | 44.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 69c | 41.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked No | 37c | 41.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 110 | 23.6%26 W · 84 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fa…65eabacked Yes | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 54c | 36.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ea…645fbacked Yes | 63c | 36.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed No | 42c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…38b2backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…c747backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb161…9132backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf94…4111backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 92 | 68.5%63 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Yes | 65c | 20.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 76c | 19.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gamba Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama end in a draw?this page
- Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-04-19?No won
- Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-04-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.