Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd22a5a58b3bebcb7cdeba3381d67577c328ad4b42ef579dc93508f707c35f104
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Yandexof Team Yandex, HULIGANI
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $153,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed HULIGANI | 8c | 53,014$4,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,130.15 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d0…1a68backed HULIGANI | 0c | 13,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed HULIGANI | 4c | 1,857$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked HULIGANI | 14c | 1,805$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.81 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…2a89backed HULIGANI | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59c4…da2fbacked HULIGANI | 3c | 999.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked HULIGANI | 2c | 849.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed HULIGANI | 11c | 770.74$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 170 | 40.6%69 W · 101 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed HULIGANI | 16c | 562.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02fe…c5a5backed HULIGANI | 13c | 344.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked HULIGANI | 10c | 340$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c5…5bbabacked HULIGANI | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed HULIGANI | 12c | 299.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed HULIGANI | 7c | 251.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed HULIGANI | 6c | 243.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc670…b781backed HULIGANI | 13c | 243.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72da…9b77backed HULIGANI | 11c | 208.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed HULIGANI | 11c | 171.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 188 | 30.9%58 W · 130 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked HULIGANI | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 227 | 38.3%87 W · 140 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed HULIGANI | 12c | 101.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked HULIGANI | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 421 | 46.6%196 W · 225 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed HULIGANI | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f70…123dbacked HULIGANI | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Group StageTeam Yandex won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs HULIGANI - Game 2 WinnerTeam Yandex won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs HULIGANI (+1.5)Team Yandex won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.