Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd22c0ed9ce64fe57e482eab569161a8f50c0034bcf8184e113f5439fe8894308
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 61c | 836.76$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.44 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 11c | 462$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 24c | 441$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.2 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 5c | 435.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 26c | 270.79$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.29 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…4bcabacked Yes | 76c | 256.1$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 13c | 181.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.56 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 18c | 152.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 26c | 148.59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.44 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 59c | 142.88$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 139.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b02…abdfbacked Yes | 10c | 108.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.81 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 68c | 103.87$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 100.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 67.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 24c | 60.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 20c | 50.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 75c | 49.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 42c | 47.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 37c | 45.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d3…a49cbacked Yes | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 23c | 43.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 65c | 40.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 37c | 40.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b2…a684backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 65c | 39.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 46c | 37.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 35c | 34.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…f34cbacked Yes | 34c | 34.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 65c | 30.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 73c | 29.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked Yes | 61c | 24.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…4432backed No | 51c | 22.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…9e0cbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.