Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17092bdd3bccbfa2443033081753366ade960406a4ad7f05b599298ac6ec36c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 449.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…20bbbacked Yes | 18c | 420.35$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.29 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 335.37$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 268.61$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 73c | 263.96$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 26c | 142.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 141.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 79c | 119.05$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…dc18backed Yes | 34c | 105.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 28c | 105.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ccefbacked Yes | 45c | 72.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 69.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 59.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 34c | 55.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed Yes | 29c | 53.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 26c | 47.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed Yes | 32c | 43.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…1f74backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 70c | 34.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 66c | 29.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 28.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…9373backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed No | 70c | 23.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c217backed No | 74c | 20.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 75c | 19.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked No | 75c | 17.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.