Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd255c8691f29bc8ca6b4e94c683528088df486a713a2c80318d9b80e46a26191
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,821 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,090$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 695.15$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 6c | 531.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 16c | 501.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.74 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 250.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 16c | 239.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 12c | 211.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 15c | 166.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 25c | 163$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 160.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 153.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9a…f88abacked Yes | 19c | 144.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 22c | 141.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 133.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 20c | 126.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 126.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 20c | 115.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 12c | 99.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6db…810ebacked Yes | 22c | 93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 79c | 92.08$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 79c | 74.17$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…3f18backed No | 77c | 71.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 69.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 22c | 66.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 17c | 60.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 79c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 80c | 35.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 34.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 31.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 15.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C or below on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or higher on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.