Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58cfebb3bd33fc298fcef93071491dc6bfac6b50915224fa6a9fb54037f54894
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $152,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,309 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07c2…7a17backed No | 2c | 15,909$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.16 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…1c1cbacked No | 3c | 13,706$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 6,403$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf7…43a2backed No | 1c | 4,764$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35a1…0951backed No | 5c | 1,700$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 39c | 1,310$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.95 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 6c | 1,230$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.73 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 14c | 1,115$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 9c | 865.09$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 831.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed No | 55c | 743.83$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.1 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 711.11$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.19 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf852…7683backed No | 19c | 696.81$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 49c | 682.92$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.81 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 680.71$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.63 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 39c | 539.43$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.05 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 57c | 514.99$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.75 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9a…f88abacked Yes | 30c | 453.05$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.22 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 65c | 430.3$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.73 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa6…6cb8backed Yes | 30c | 400$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…04cebacked No | 76c | 397.69$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.01 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 63c | 371.03$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.41 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 340.93$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.61 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 6c | 332.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fd…2d64backed No | 5c | 326.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 71c | 326.61$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.61 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 32c | 279.89$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.02 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 31c | 276.45$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.12 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 258.38$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x41c6…76b2backed No | 68c | 250.99$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 51c | 234.67$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.21 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 226.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 219.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b02…e0a3backed No | 76c | 214.54$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 57c | 210.36$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.45 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9dd…1870backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 33c | 180.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.36 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f2…09babacked No | 61c | 179.64$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.3 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 15c | 163$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.22 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 19c | 160.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.53 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 39c | 157.47$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 35c | 150.3$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.15 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 28c | 148$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.56 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 33c | 147.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.31 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 32c | 146.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.62 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…55e4backed No | 52c | 145.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 48 | 87.5%42 W · 6 L | +12.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +49%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 57c | 140.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.27 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…86cbbacked Yes | 76c | 132$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…9ebbbacked No | 8c | 131.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…242abacked Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 31c | 130.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.31 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 128$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 28c | 126.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.14 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 125.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 26c | 124.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.92 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 68c | 123.95$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.29 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 14c | 123.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.52 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 17c | 114.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.3 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 29c | 110.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.59 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 72c | 108.59$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8744…3d64backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 24c | 96.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.84 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 50c | 94.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…b75bbacked Yes | 26c | 93.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.62 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6db…810ebacked Yes | 32c | 92.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.57 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 87.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 56c | 85.68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 19c | 77.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 70.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 20c | 70.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked No | 68c | 70$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 72c | 64.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 32c | 63.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1173…4dbfbacked Yes | 42c | 59.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 72c | 59.02$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…10a5backed Yes | 68c | 58.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 60c | 58.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…6c07backed Yes | 30c | 56.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8091…3178backed Yes | 20c | 56.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…0051backed No | 73c | 54.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 52.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 48c | 51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 33c | 50.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 49c | 49.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…4f5bbacked No | 41c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1a…e3babacked No | 70c | 44.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf05c…9cafbacked No | 45c | 44.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d72…9795backed No | 72c | 44.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…0f11backed No | 55c | 43.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…a3d5backed Yes | 71c | 42.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 28c | 42.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 31c | 37.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…66f8backed Yes | 34c | 34.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C or below on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or higher on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.