Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8eac94684ce281b62f51bf9b37c9e58b9fb2b23e064b670d30dd5375fb45b88c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,156 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x690b…9145backed Yes | 1c | 17,900$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.4 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…4e58backed Yes | 1c | 11,500$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c2…7a17backed Yes | 2c | 4,106$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,217$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c7…bc56backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 1,724$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…05fbbacked Yes | 72c | 1,273$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.55 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 992.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 13c | 964.2$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.64 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 11c | 905.63$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.44 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 24c | 720.47$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.2 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 695.77$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 22c | 656.47$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 74c | 634.93$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.19 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 2c | 615.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 10c | 579.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 34c | 521.99$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.85 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 32c | 372.17$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.31 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 43c | 359.23$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.62 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 61c | 329.91$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.52 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 40c | 297.39$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.1 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 53c | 232.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.3 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 211.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 46c | 200$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 42c | 189.81$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.03 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 33c | 180.08$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 165.96$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 42c | 163$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.96 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked No | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 62c | 147.19$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x093a…1b3fbacked No | 70c | 142.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 42c | 140.79$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 36c | 140$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 49c | 134.25$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 33c | 130$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 128$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.76 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 39c | 127.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.94 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 55c | 126.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 38c | 124.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 51c | 117.01$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.39 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 14c | 115.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 112.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 25c | 111.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef81…6d75backed Yes | 47c | 111.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 39c | 110.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 18c | 108.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 15c | 100.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb058…852cbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8744…3d64backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 60c | 96.59$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…56cabacked No | 53c | 94.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 58c | 93.51$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…44c3backed Yes | 19c | 89.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f0…c9aabacked Yes | 35c | 86.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 34c | 85.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 84.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…10a5backed Yes | 35c | 80.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 15c | 79.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 66c | 78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa6…6cb8backed No | 55c | 75.44$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked No | 49c | 72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 47c | 66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…d8cebacked Yes | 21c | 65.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8091…3178backed Yes | 38c | 64.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 43c | 63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 34c | 60.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…6c07backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9a…f88abacked Yes | 46c | 59.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 49c | 55.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 47c | 53.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x956b…65eabacked Yes | 58c | 51.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6db…810ebacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d0…f7e4backed Yes | 47c | 48.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +41%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 46c | 48.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38bb…2fcfbacked No | 69c | 43.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4514…48fdbacked No | 58c | 43.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…9f00backed Yes | 36c | 41.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9dd…1870backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 44c | 38.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 67c | 37.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 64c | 35.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes | 42c | 34.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed No | 56c | 33.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf03d…2bcfbacked No | 74c | 32.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 36c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 41c | 31.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…66f8backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e3…51a3backed Yes | 48c | 29.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C or below on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or higher on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.