Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs Invictus Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd289454ee62ec6f97c61f667ef531e60f5fe278c07b8b4a412944887c7c33a84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Invictus Gamingof Ninjas in Pyjamas, Invictus Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40ea…832fbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas | 37c | 62,832$23,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,446.26 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…3934backed Invictus Gaming | 63c | 42,646$26,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,778.9 | 543 | 53.8%292 W · 251 L | +32.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…782bbacked Invictus Gaming | 62c | 6,500$4,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,470 | 1,522 | 54.7%832 W · 690 L | +37.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0b…6583backed Invictus Gaming | 62c | 5,514$3,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,114.87 | 121 | 42.1%51 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f03…b1bebacked Invictus Gaming | 62c | 3,500$2,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330 | 1,132 | 52.5%594 W · 538 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbb…9a17backed Invictus Gaming | 64c | 3,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.99 | 252 | 43.7%110 W · 142 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…186dbacked Invictus Gaming | 63c | 2,118$1,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.54 | 221 | 42.5%94 W · 127 L | -13.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Invictus Gaming | 64c | 1,172$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.88 | 499 | 47.1%235 W · 264 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 36c | 1,120$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.2 | 443 | 35.4%157 W · 286 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Invictus Gaming | 62c | 999$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.62 | 1,611 | 48.4%780 W · 831 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 33c | 574.52$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.08 | 376 | 41.8%157 W · 219 L | -18.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Invictus Gaming | 63c | 567.74$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 648 | 49.8%323 W · 325 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 34c | 390.97$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.2 | 360 | 44.7%161 W · 199 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…f231backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 36c | 377.78$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 304 | 40.1%122 W · 182 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Invictus Gaming | 69c | 339.35$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.2 | 1,599 | 46.8%748 W · 851 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 36c | 333.33$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 479 | 33.6%161 W · 318 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…dba6backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbed4…f891backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 36c | 278.89$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 512 | 47.3%242 W · 270 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…612abacked Ninjas in Pyjamas | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 440 | 46.4%204 W · 236 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed6…ec56backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 206 | 49.5%102 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Invictus Gaming | 62c | 190.42$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8976…7367backed Invictus Gaming | 63c | 169$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.53 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -9.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…5928backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 38c | 105$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 417 | 43.9%183 W · 234 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c1…3e0bbacked Invictus Gaming | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 636 | 46.9%298 W · 338 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2b…d422backed Invictus Gaming | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd1…9249backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de0…ea80backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 38c | 79.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…db27backed Invictus Gaming | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d1…371bbacked Invictus Gaming | 69c | 61.82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 168 | 53%89 W · 79 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…1513backed Invictus Gaming | 65c | 61.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 160 | 35%56 W · 104 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Invictus Gaming | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 629 | 49.9%314 W · 315 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas | 39c | 50.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Invictus Gaming | 60c | 47.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 1,035 | 47.2%489 W · 546 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 35c | 46.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 1,372 | 48.6%667 W · 705 L | +57.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a35…6fe0backed Invictus Gaming | 59c | 40.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 336 | 42.3%142 W · 194 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc90e…4116backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 40c | 25.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a5…f52ebacked Ninjas in Pyjamas | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 146 | 50.7%74 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs Invictus Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (+1.5)Invictus Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group AscendInvictus Gaming won
- LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 WinnerInvictus Gaming won
- LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 WinnerInvictus Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.