MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd293eacb3df30a1dcc937b21ae9841e3d932c3e2375a3c49e3ea54dc34e71032
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 50c | 2,924$1,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,462.35 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 50c | 2,512$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.02 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 50c | 1,148$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.92 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf072…467abacked No | 50c | 806.8$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 50c | 548$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.3 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 117 | 43.6%51 W · 66 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 50c | 174.98$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.49 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 172 | 43%74 W · 98 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9f…10cabacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed7…aae7backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Yes | 51c | 33.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinalsthis page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis CardinalsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.