South American Leagues · resolved market
Cruzeiro EC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2b448d852669d48f6d5b2b6f51c17dc2408fdeba47d886d66b8417ee6b2e3aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd69d…fe68backed Under | 1c | 7,915$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Under | 2c | 5,853$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.78 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +11.9wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 65c | 542.53$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.93 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc861…f0fabacked Under | 4c | 506.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 10c | 489.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 35c | 389.48$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.74 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 27c | 204.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 68c | 160.37$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x199a…b9d4backed Under | 38c | 150.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 28c | 142.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 73c | 134.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 35c | 132.53$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 38c | 132.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02fd…c162backed Over | 62c | 107.54$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 71c | 99.67$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 72c | 98.32$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 29c | 95.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…f543backed Under | 39c | 78.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21f…adddbacked Over | 65c | 75.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 71c | 73.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 64c | 71.64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 66c | 59.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 75c | 59.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 70c | 56.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 28c | 55.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 66c | 55.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b14…5301backed Under | 34c | 54.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 71c | 27.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 79 | 73.4%58 W · 21 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…e4babacked Over | 72c | 27.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Under | 41c | 27.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked Over | 74c | 24.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Over | 64c | 18.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…eb0abacked Over | 73c | 16.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cruzeiro EC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 1.5this page
- Cruzeiro EC vs. EC Vitória: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)Cruzeiro EC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.