South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbae1b28e0d4da103fff5c38fef28999251b03cbf5bf8144cf6b020d367f41d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cruzeiro ECof Cruzeiro EC, EC Vitória
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Cruzeiro EC | 35c | 1,680$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092.28 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked EC Vitória | 64c | 365.11$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.89 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Cruzeiro EC | 36c | 267.11$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.95 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed EC Vitória | 64c | 192.09$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.34 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed EC Vitória | 18c | 155.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed EC Vitória | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x537d…615bbacked Cruzeiro EC | 36c | 140.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed EC Vitória | 65c | 112.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.82 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked EC Vitória | 65c | 98.02$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.71 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cruzeiro EC | 65c | 91.34$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Cruzeiro EC | 77c | 88.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 292 | 45.2%132 W · 160 L | -24.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed EC Vitória | 65c | 65.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 188 | 59%111 W · 77 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed EC Vitória | 65c | 65.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked EC Vitória | 65c | 65.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 199 | 55.8%111 W · 88 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed EC Vitória | 65c | 65.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 281 | 58.7%165 W · 116 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…72ebbacked EC Vitória | 65c | 65.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…2e3abacked EC Vitória | 65c | 65.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked EC Vitória | 65c | 65.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 261 | 60.9%159 W · 102 L | +20.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed EC Vitória | 65c | 65.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked EC Vitória | 65c | 65.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…31c3backed EC Vitória | 65c | 65.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed EC Vitória | 65c | 61.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked EC Vitória | 65c | 61.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Cruzeiro EC | 57c | 58.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed EC Vitória | 65c | 54.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed EC Vitória | 57c | 49.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4a47…cfbbbacked Cruzeiro EC | 36c | 40.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…f31bbacked EC Vitória | 65c | 38.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed EC Vitória | 65c | 36.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked EC Vitória | 65c | 36.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 156 | 54.5%85 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed EC Vitória | 65c | 36.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Cruzeiro EC | 41c | 27.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Cruzeiro EC | 76c | 25.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed EC Vitória | 65c | 23.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a7…64fdbacked EC Vitória | 65c | 22.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed EC Vitória | 65c | 18.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)this page
- Cruzeiro EC vs. EC Vitória: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.