South American Leagues · resolved market
Cruzeiro EC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x591d1fc2224ef3bc6e1fea24aca1cae153415cd7e5b6184f73fedacba253bc9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 26c | 1,283$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.56 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 74c | 382.04$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.33 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 74c | 336.99$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.62 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 68c | 191.02$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 23c | 190$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x199a…b9d4backed Under | 24c | 143.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 11c | 128.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Over | 23c | 113.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 28c | 112.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 24c | 111.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed26…6282backed Under | 77c | 109.09$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 74c | 99.49$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 25c | 86.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 70c | 63.59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 25c | 54.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 23c | 53.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 52.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…90ebbacked Under | 43c | 44.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891f…88bfbacked Under | 77c | 38.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 54c | 34.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 75c | 33.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 213 | 59.6%127 W · 86 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Under | 76c | 32.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 160 | 41.3%66 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 72c | 29.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 55c | 26.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Under | 75c | 15.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cruzeiro EC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 3.5this page
- Cruzeiro EC vs. EC Vitória: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)Cruzeiro EC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.