Lol · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2d19f59e5dc860672a240c0d2773a5b47279563f5159218850b49c2de87dcc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Under | 56c | 600$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c38…a15abacked Over | 50c | 485.44$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.78 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49d…f05cbacked Over | 44c | 370$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.2 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Under | 50c | 361$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.14 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Over | 51c | 318.24$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.14 | 1,728 | 29.5%509 W · 1,219 L | -123.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 45c | 197.44$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.85 | 508 | 48.4%246 W · 262 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 51c | 184.29$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.22 | 2,679 | 35.7%957 W · 1,722 L | -153.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4694…b6b2backed Over | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed Under | 61c | 111.21$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.84 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x766a…d805backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…39dabacked Under | 49c | 93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c67…e40ebacked Under | 48c | 93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Over | 59c | 68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Under | 60c | 53.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,035 | 47.2%489 W · 546 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 61c | 49.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 539 | 54.7%295 W · 244 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd13f…7682backed Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 202 | 39.6%80 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c7…264fbacked Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 280 | 40%112 W · 168 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdefd…afbcbacked Over | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Over | 30c | 33.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 1,241 | 34.7%431 W · 810 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec8a…94b3backed Under | 39c | 32.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…ebecbacked Under | 70c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 4.5this page
- Game Handicap: WB (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5)Top Esports won
- Game Handicap: WB (-2.5) vs Top Esports (+2.5)Top Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL PlayoffsWeibo Gaming won
- LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 WinnerWeibo Gaming won
- LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 WinnerTop Esports won
- LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 WinnerWeibo Gaming won
- LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 WinnerTop Esports won
- Total Kills Over/Under 32.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.