MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2e4d07220f1575f0e8649a96e703c2cf7cdad38349a0c24f93aca98043a5d23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,876 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe278…b608backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 999.99$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 874$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.66 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 583$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Chicago Cubs | 49c | 545.97$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.79 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Chicago Cubs | 39c | 342.97$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.76 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Chicago Cubs | 46c | 257.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.39 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 178.02$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.55 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Chicago Cubs | 52c | 164.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.22 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 160$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Chicago Cubs | 16c | 137.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Chicago Cubs | 13c | 122.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 117.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Chicago Cubs | 18c | 112.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked San Diego Padres | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked San Diego Padres | 49c | 78.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…417cbacked Chicago Cubs | 46c | 73.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked San Diego Padres | 48c | 71.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Chicago Cubs | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 38.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Chicago Cubs | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.