Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FK Austria Wien vs. MH Beitar Jerusalem end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd30332a08a86559503afaaafed7ef0abb853b632011174e0151874aae2e26249
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 27c | 7,500$1,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,988.37 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 74c | 3,400$2,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.99 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 74c | 2,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4703…3ba6backed Yes | 26c | 1,154$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 22c | 1,100$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 78c | 795.05$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.8 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 74c | 554.97$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.29 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 74c | 485.05$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.11 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 18c | 471.9$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.05 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 413.47$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.78 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 73c | 370$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.9 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x208c…6b98backed Yes | 27c | 297.37$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed No | 73c | 282$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.14 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…2afcbacked Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…d0b2backed Yes | 26c | 173.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 78c | 170$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7475…74bbbacked Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f7…4f7cbacked Yes | 9c | 142.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 26c | 103.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 158 | 28.5%45 W · 113 L | -18.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed No | 75c | 96.01$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Yes | 19c | 88.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked No | 79c | 31.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed No | 74c | 14.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 73c | 14.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 171 | 53.8%92 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…200bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 78cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FK Austria Wien vs. MH Beitar Jerusalem end in a draw?this page
- Will FK Austria Wien win on 2026-08-13?No won
- Will MH Beitar Jerusalem win on 2026-08-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.