Us Politics · resolved market
Will Andrew Cuomo’s vote share be less than 35% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3358d16bad932b94fa24752fa59b379c4b02e91c7eae96c4611f5bb5637ed7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 18c | 744.87$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.26 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 20c | 693.2$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.64 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 29c | 372.37$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed No | 71c | 372.37$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.99 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 30c | 350$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fa…0a56backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 25c | 121$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 105$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked Yes | 19c | 86.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb1…1129backed Yes | 28c | 62.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4d…2173backed Yes | 27c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9019…42e0backed No | 77c | 13.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s vote share be less than 35% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?this page
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s vote share be 45% or higher in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?No won
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s vote share be between 35% and 40% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?Yes won
- Will Andrew Cuomo’s vote share be between 40% and 45% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.