College Football · resolved market
Spread: Ohio (-33.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd34606bc0296a646ff80429429176adb5c8c2a80c7c7a7e24a5c5c3c4e92e2b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UMassof Ohio, UMass
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,074
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Ohio | 52c | 30,000$15,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,600 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked UMass | 48c | 24,235$11,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,602.2 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Ohio | 52c | 20,000$10,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,399.55 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed UMass | 48c | 8,195$3,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,261.4 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed UMass | 48c | 7,382$3,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,838.77 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed UMass | 49c | 6,001$2,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,060.51 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed UMass | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked UMass | 48c | 4,673$2,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,441.5 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Ohio | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed UMass | 48c | 2,280$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.6 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Ohio | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Ohio | 52c | 1,538$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21d8…ad91backed Ohio | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed UMass | 49c | 724.67$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.58 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Ohio | 51c | 711$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.61 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f8…bed5backed UMass | 49c | 416.66$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.58 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Ohio | 53c | 188.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed UMass | 47c | 180.75$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.8 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed UMass | 48c | 109$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Ohio | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2422backed Ohio | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked UMass | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +9.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed UMass | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed UMass | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…ada0backed Ohio | 53c | 31.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…aeb8backed Ohio | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cee…5829backed Ohio | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ohio (-33.5)this page
- O/U 51.5Over won
- Spread: Ohio (-32.5)UMass won
- Spread: Ohio (-34.5)UMass won
- UMass vs. OhioOhio won
- UMass vs. Ohio: 1H MoneylineOhio won
- UMass vs. Ohio: O/U 52.5Over won
- UMass vs. Ohio: O/U 53.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.