South American Leagues · resolved market
Will AA Estudiantes win on 2026-08-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd36d58183ad39b61fcf123cb403c465edf15ff2c2679cdc10de173eaa130eed6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Yes | 35c | 4,506$1,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,575.58 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 69c | 3,272$2,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.12 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 66c | 2,564$1,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.75 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 34c | 2,297$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.46 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…2fa1backed Yes | 4c | 918.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 108 | 28.7%31 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 65c | 848.83$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.13 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Yes | 33c | 731$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.23 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 70c | 643.25$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.2 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Yes | 2c | 549.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cd…8e7dbacked Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 68c | 400.92$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.89 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 19c | 376$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 237 | 33.8%80 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 34c | 299.81$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.13 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd868…7f60backed Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 14.1%11 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3e…534ebacked No | 67c | 224.3$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…0b6ebacked No | 68c | 221.84$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.84 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed No | 70c | 190.13$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.78 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Yes | 34c | 176.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 33c | 158.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Yes | 33c | 148.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 65c | 143.94$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 31c | 134$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 33c | 131.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 10c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b8…233abacked Yes | 34c | 117.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Yes | 34c | 83.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…0769backed Yes | 35c | 73.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Yes | 35c | 70.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed No | 71c | 59.91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 68c | 58.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 331 | 52.6%174 W · 157 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…41b2backed Yes | 29c | 38.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 65c | 23.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a5…307abacked No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked No | 65c | 18.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 74c | 16.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed No | 68c | 15.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AA Estudiantes win on 2026-08-01?this page
- Will AA Estudiantes vs. CA Banfield end in a draw?Yes won
- Will CA Banfield win on 2026-08-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.