La Liga · resolved market
UD Almería vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd37b19bf96483b203ff11a7bd37310cd818d085e79a4e88494e58b643e763e90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 44c | 2,232$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.84 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 32c | 1,002$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.62 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 589.64$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.71 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 48c | 508.88$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.48 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…dee9backed Over | 22c | 356.79$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3e…b9a4backed Under | 78c | 356.79$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d56…a287backed Over | 31c | 323.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.53 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 66c | 290.12$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.64 | 283 | 57.2%162 W · 121 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 51c | 283$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.67 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +14.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 67c | 238.01$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.48 | 357 | 59.4%212 W · 145 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe96…4a6dbacked Under | 80c | 200$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.48 | 387 | 48.1%186 W · 201 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac52…d3febacked Under | 78c | 187.97$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e9…1a62backed Over | 22c | 187.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +194.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Under | 51c | 149.02$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…0263backed Over | 67c | 148.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 62c | 138.09$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 178 | 56.7%101 W · 77 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…b159backed Under | 80c | 118$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 60cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 19c | 113.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.62 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dc…a2ecbacked Over | 19c | 87.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 20c | 84.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.89 | 501 | 49.5%248 W · 253 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 21c | 48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 890 | 50%445 W · 445 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 37c | 47.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 175 | 62.9%110 W · 65 L | +32.1wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…d6d5backed Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc709…0a40backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 56c | 28.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 411 | 47.9%197 W · 214 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…03b7backed Under | 54c | 27.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 62c | 22.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 791 | 33%261 W · 530 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 80c | 13.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed Under | 80c | 13.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 80c | 13.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 227 | 58.1%132 W · 95 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 80c | 13.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed Under | 80c | 13.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 80c | 13.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Under | 80c | 13.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…31c3backed Under | 80c | 13.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UD Almería vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol B (-1.5)UD Almería won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol B (-2.5)UD Almería won
- Spread: UD Almería (-1.5)UD Almería won
- Spread: UD Almería (-2.5)UD Almería won
- UD Almería vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- UD Almería vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B: O/U 1.5Over won
- UD Almería vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B: O/U 2.5Over won
- UD Almería vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.