Tennis · resolved market
ITF Brisbane: Chase Ferguson vs Mustafa Ege Sik
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3a4ca3c07bec6fd8a165ca1808e9273e53a6267044a13e0c836d7ca91fd48a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chase Fergusonof Chase Ferguson, Mustafa Ege Sik
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf00…1199backed Mustafa Ege Sik | 12c | 1,784$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.02 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…56ffbacked Mustafa Ege Sik | 14c | 678.57$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Mustafa Ege Sik | 29c | 310.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 394 | 51.3%202 W · 192 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec3…e330backed Chase Ferguson | 65c | 185.55$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 433 | 47.3%205 W · 228 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Chase Ferguson | 57c | 183.68$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.93 | 659 | 42.2%278 W · 381 L | -25.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Mustafa Ege Sik | 9c | 165.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Mustafa Ege Sik | 9c | 165.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Mustafa Ege Sik | 43c | 154.68$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.59 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Mustafa Ege Sik | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Mustafa Ege Sik | 45c | 115.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Mustafa Ege Sik | 45c | 113.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Mustafa Ege Sik | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Mustafa Ege Sik | 21c | 99.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Mustafa Ege Sik | 45c | 95.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe2…697abacked Mustafa Ege Sik | 35c | 91.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Chase Ferguson | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Mustafa Ege Sik | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Mustafa Ege Sik | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 654 | 34.9%228 W · 426 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07b…b7c9backed Chase Ferguson | 67c | 63.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 154 | 56.5%87 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc95d…d369backed Mustafa Ege Sik | 25c | 58.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…eeb9backed Chase Ferguson | 58c | 42.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 291 | 47.8%139 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3551…a581backed Mustafa Ege Sik | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Chase Ferguson | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Chase Ferguson | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chase Ferguson | 71c | 18.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chase Ferguson | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.