NFL · resolved market
Spread: 49ers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3a53bdac72c1845ac195c5d9735b49113d80c37be027cd0d205f4f3510bb758
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 49ersof 49ers, Saints
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked 49ers | 45c | 6,713$3,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,709.4 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…93cdbacked Saints | 57c | 3,485$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Saints | 55c | 2,779$1,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,528.1 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Saints | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked 49ers | 42c | 1,180$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.71 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked 49ers | 43c | 951.63$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.95 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked 49ers | 43c | 700$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…046ebacked 49ers | 44c | 600$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed 49ers | 43c | 400$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed 49ers | 45c | 213$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.15 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…2a13backed Saints | 57c | 210.53$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Saints | 55c | 181$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Saints | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebc6…c3e4backed Saints | 56c | 78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed 49ers | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked 49ers | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: 49ers (-3.5)this page
- 49ers vs. Saints49ers won
- 49ers vs. Saints: O/U 40.5Over won
- Spread: 49ers (-2.5)49ers won
- Spread: 49ers (-4.5)49ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.