NFL · resolved market
Spread: 49ers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x671331f3cd3e0ecbab95f9b0f6ec68bac6bbc83d757dbf4f20c4cdb380e3b408
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 49ersof 49ers, Saints
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Saints | 45c | 70,667$31,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,629.56 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked 49ers | 55c | 57,347$31,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,610.87 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +12.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac1…45dbbacked 49ers | 55c | 7,310$4,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,289.61 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed 49ers | 55c | 3,250$1,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,462.5 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed 49ers | 54c | 1,574$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.07 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Saints | 46c | 870.65$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.5 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked 49ers | 67c | 679.98$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.79 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Saints | 49c | 661.29$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.29 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Saints | 45c | 602$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.9 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed 49ers | 55c | 562.95$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.33 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed 49ers | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked 49ers | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed 49ers | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.96 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked 49ers | 54c | 418.88$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.68 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa501…9f0fbacked 49ers | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked 49ers | 54c | 371$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.66 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed 49ers | 55c | 272.4$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.1 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…e6fdbacked Saints | 46c | 263.83$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Saints | 48c | 241.61$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.61 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Saints | 46c | 218.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.06 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…393ebacked 49ers | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Saints | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed 49ers | 55c | 184.38$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.61 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa78c…cb69backed 49ers | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Saints | 44c | 158.52$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed 49ers | 54c | 124.6$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.32 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebc6…c3e4backed Saints | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed 49ers | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Saints | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked 49ers | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed 49ers | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked 49ers | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: 49ers (-2.5)this page
- 49ers vs. Saints49ers won
- 49ers vs. Saints: O/U 40.5Over won
- Spread: 49ers (-3.5)49ers won
- Spread: 49ers (-4.5)49ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.