MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3b1af0c39e35170a395f5dc66e68b9efae1bd5417077b7493a484b425b96f5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 739.98$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.59 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 5c | 544.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked San Francisco Giants | 43c | 321.05$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…fb99backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 312.77$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.28 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2513…91fbbacked San Francisco Giants | 46c | 272.55$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.18 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed San Francisco Giants | 46c | 240.79$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.02 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked San Francisco Giants | 46c | 239.8$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.49 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 167.95$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.37 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked San Francisco Giants | 46c | 126.21$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 125.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.77 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Washington Nationals | 54c | 122.33$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 119.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.72 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 111.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd747…ead8backed San Francisco Giants | 46c | 105.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Washington Nationals | 54c | 104.17$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked San Francisco Giants | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 88.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 78.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 71.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1f…2bd0backed San Francisco Giants | 44c | 57.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 53.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed San Francisco Giants | 44c | 35.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…b015backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 24.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked San Francisco Giants | 79c | 23.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington NationalsSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 14.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 15.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-5.5)Washington Nationals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.