MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a49222cbc56eff6ee348cc958344c67a4f93f1b6ff2d7a42dbb6f9e093bef4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 54c | 10,475$5,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,654.8 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Under | 54c | 5,834$3,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,150.58 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 46c | 5,751$2,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,096.4 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6c…236dbacked Under | 53c | 5,659$2,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.16 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.9wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 50c | 3,972$1,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,985.94 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Under | 50c | 3,532$1,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,765.98 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 46c | 3,465$1,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,870.92 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 47c | 3,176$1,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,695.24 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 3,054$1,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,637.32 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 49c | 1,664$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.53 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 48c | 1,411$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.79 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 46c | 1,349$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.86 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 6c | 1,262$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.46 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 48c | 1,259$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.69 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 1,211$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.8 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 48c | 1,071$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.05 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 54c | 972.4$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.1 | 444 | 51.1%227 W · 217 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Over | 46c | 869$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.26 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 46c | 761$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.94 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 46c | 672.83$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.55 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 46c | 291.65$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.05 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Over | 49c | 285.66$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 48c | 250.41$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.21 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Under | 51c | 189.46$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.08 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Over | 47c | 174.51$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.2 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 50c | 173.6$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.08 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Over | 48c | 170.04$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.42 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 50c | 158.59$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.29 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 53c | 134.12$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Over | 47c | 122.11$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.72 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…a593backed Under | 51c | 105.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 47c | 103.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.91 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 53c | 92.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 46c | 86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Under | 52c | 56.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 55.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 47c | 55.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 54c | 54.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 50c | 52.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 47c | 50.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a66…a5d7backed Over | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 36.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9221…9419backed Under | 51c | 35.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 33.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 63c | 29.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x20fe…884cbacked Over | 49c | 29.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…8f36backed Over | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 54c | 28.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 49c | 26.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 24.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cc…3132backed Over | 50c | 20.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington NationalsSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 14.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 15.5Under won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-5.5)Washington Nationals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.