Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Wisconsin Badgers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3b8d010dff9b9b5f46bbc394cf7dc44d5e1f6c3ee345cf034a4fe11d9fd3fea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oregon Ducksof Wisconsin Badgers, Oregon Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Oregon Ducks | 42c | 10,323$4,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,947.48 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb44f…8c20backed Wisconsin Badgers | 57c | 6,377$3,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,634.55 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Wisconsin Badgers | 59c | 2,975$1,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,755.01 | 351 | 51.9%182 W · 169 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Wisconsin Badgers | 57c | 991.42$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.11 | 163 | 50.9%83 W · 80 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Oregon Ducks | 43c | 974$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.2 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Wisconsin Badgers | 57c | 697.99$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.57 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd20f…f5c7backed Wisconsin Badgers | 58c | 429.48$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Oregon Ducks | 44c | 271.66$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.88 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Wisconsin Badgers | 56c | 238.4$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.76 | 429 | 34.3%147 W · 282 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4683…1218backed Wisconsin Badgers | 58c | 205.13$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.98 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Oregon Ducks | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 247 | 37.7%93 W · 154 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Oregon Ducks | 43c | 115.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.71 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…04bbbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 57c | 69.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca4…817ebacked Oregon Ducks | 45c | 52.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Oregon Ducks | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Wisconsin Badgers | 55c | 49.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Oregon Ducks | 46c | 45.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wisconsin Badgers | 57c | 41.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Oregon Ducks | 42c | 35.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Oregon Ducks | 43c | 33.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 709 | 36.1%256 W · 453 L | -27.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Oregon Ducks | 45c | 27.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Oregon Ducks | 43c | 25.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Wisconsin Badgers (-4.5)this page
- Spread: Wisconsin Badgers (-5.5)Oregon Ducks won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Oregon DucksOregon Ducks won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Oregon Ducks: O/U 152.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.