Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3bc59c232c4813bbd472ba45293881337591d358289ed0e74de1c4f447e25dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 42c | 515.41$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.24 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 351.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 78c | 296.69$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.65 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 16c | 264.41$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 72c | 262$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.08 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 8c | 254.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 24c | 238$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 33c | 229.82$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 22c | 202.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 70c | 176.92$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 64c | 135.46$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 72c | 134.54$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 38c | 131.23$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 123.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 116.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 115.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 111.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d74…0149backed Yes | 45c | 104.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 80c | 99.25$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 36c | 93.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…b480backed Yes | 27c | 92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 18c | 91.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed Yes | 11c | 91.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 90.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 86.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f2…4fc0backed No | 54c | 77.62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa86b…96b8backed Yes | 19c | 59.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…0a41backed No | 80c | 57.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 34c | 56.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 41c | 47.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 46.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 62c | 46.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 56c | 44.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 42.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 63c | 38.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 54c | 37.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 42c | 29.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 65c | 28.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes | 45c | 28.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 57c | 27.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 77c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed No | 77c | 26.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…d3d5backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 52c | 24.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 65c | 23.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 64c | 20.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 58c | 19.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.