Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb98893b67f2b9e595aedc1491535573d44f595409b67259c9892d8f4ddcd9fab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 50c | 474.62$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.18 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 405.61$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 52c | 337.18$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.04 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 70c | 298.26$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.41 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 39c | 268.95$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.06 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 23c | 256.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.53 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 61c | 255.54$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.09 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 54c | 196.9$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.04 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 39c | 172.32$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 63c | 171.37$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.95 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 58c | 154.73$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 68c | 151.23$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 41c | 146.8$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 75c | 143.75$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 35c | 142.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.88 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…4fd0backed No | 66c | 141.64$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.48 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -10.5wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc6aa…43a5backed No | 65c | 132.75$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 46c | 122.36$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 42c | 119.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.18 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 40c | 117.73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.08 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 66c | 108.14$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.47 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 36c | 106.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.44 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 46c | 98.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 56c | 79.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 75.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 75.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…6e24backed No | 71c | 75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -10.9wins | -0.32per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 68c | 73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 68c | 72.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 70c | 72.76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c77…ff72backed No | 42c | 66.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 42c | 66.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…e718backed No | 60c | 64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8c…7026backed No | 60c | 63.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 55.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 20c | 49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b1…f521backed Yes | 35c | 48.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 43c | 48.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 38c | 47.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 43c | 47.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 60c | 45.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d74…0149backed Yes | 37c | 45.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 43.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 62c | 43.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ea…6b1abacked Yes | 55c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 40.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 37c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 42c | 37.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 40c | 37.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 80c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 38c | 35.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4d…6e9dbacked Yes | 41c | 34.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 43c | 33.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 32c | 32.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 44c | 31.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 48c | 30.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb989…9f16backed Yes | 59c | 30.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 61c | 29.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 38c | 29.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 40c | 26.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 51c | 26.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 42c | 26.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 25.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…5a2bbacked No | 60c | 21.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed No | 59c | 20.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed Yes | 62c | 19.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 61c | 18.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 59c | 16.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 60c | 16.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.