Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. James Madison Dukes
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3c28b5b50fb2f76078b81f1483f6594874176194f93933376522adb6dbff137
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- James Madison Dukesof Appalachian State Mountaineers, James Madison Dukes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked James Madison Dukes | 45c | 2,779$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,524.78 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked James Madison Dukes | 73c | 2,551$1,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.5 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 55c | 2,395$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.87 | 379 | 47.8%181 W · 198 L | -26.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed James Madison Dukes | 49c | 1,299$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.49 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb31…7b95backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 33c | 1,270$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.14 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers | 52c | 1,182$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.52 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 14c | 1,154$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.05 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked James Madison Dukes | 45c | 777.27$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.76 | 374 | 41.7%156 W · 218 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed James Madison Dukes | 66c | 574.54$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.5 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Appalachian State Mountaineers | 55c | 556.14$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.71 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…a27cbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers | 24c | 408.46$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.03 | 140 | 21.4%30 W · 110 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 40c | 371.15$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.02 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed James Madison Dukes | 76c | 358.46$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.03 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…caa2backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 32c | 300$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 253 | 25.3%64 W · 189 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers | 56c | 233.96$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 453 | 51.4%233 W · 220 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed James Madison Dukes | 55c | 218.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 53c | 200.03$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.05 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked James Madison Dukes | 47c | 199.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.99 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers | 54c | 186.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 402 | 52.7%212 W · 190 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed James Madison Dukes | 52c | 177.14$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.75 | 682 | 54.3%370 W · 312 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked James Madison Dukes | 51c | 103.8$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 1,058 | 55.8%590 W · 468 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked James Madison Dukes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…5b77backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers | 53c | 94.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers | 19c | 92.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 870 | 47.2%411 W · 459 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8f…1f83backed James Madison Dukes | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 646 | 58.8%380 W · 266 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…eb6abacked Appalachian State Mountaineers | 53c | 67.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 157 | 33.1%52 W · 105 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…4c1bbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers | 55c | 65.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +13.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…7a77backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 523 | 53.5%280 W · 243 L | -17.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…d102backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeffd…d3b3backed James Madison Dukes | 57c | 48.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 55c | 47.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 233 | 63.9%149 W · 84 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 390 | 50.5%197 W · 193 L | -34.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…19fcbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked James Madison Dukes | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 84 | 60.7%51 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 35c | 40.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers | 39c | 31.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed James Madison Dukes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa734…65dbbacked James Madison Dukes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed James Madison Dukes | 45c | 28.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdec…a7a3backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 42c | 24.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed James Madison Dukes | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 932 | 47.3%441 W · 491 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c4…d7dfbacked James Madison Dukes | 45c | 22.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 176 | 34.7%61 W · 115 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…ac0abacked James Madison Dukes | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 356 | 50.8%181 W · 175 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 52c | 21.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked James Madison Dukes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 100 | 95%95 W · 5 L | +21.3wins | +0.21per pick | 74cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc5…2585backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. James Madison Dukesthis page
- Spread: Appalachian State Mountaineers (-1.5)James Madison Dukes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.