NHL · resolved market
AHL: Coachella Valley Firebirds vs. Ontario Reign
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3c315cf98d6e4bf8bc4826124eebebf34667d6ed24b19542b0f99d158a86c5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Coachella Valley Firebirdsof Coachella Valley Firebirds, Ontario Reign
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,223 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Ontario Reign | 58c | 664.04$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.14 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Ontario Reign | 57c | 457$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.49 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Coachella Valley Firebirds | 43c | 240$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Coachella Valley Firebirds | 42c | 238.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.48 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 46c | 220$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.04 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 43c | 130$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Coachella Valley Firebirds | 42c | 118.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.56 | 179 | 40.2%72 W · 107 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 42c | 114.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.29 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Coachella Valley Firebirds | 42c | 85.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Ontario Reign | 59c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Ontario Reign | 56c | 53.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 38c | 35.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b14…9848backed Ontario Reign | 62c | 32.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 51cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…5403backed Ontario Reign | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.