Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3e53d77fb9fb012c6a42c30cb3090adab0b23c55ea3695809c0b29f49d60906
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mensikof Sinner, Mensik
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa02b…70d6backed Sinner | 0c | 23,333$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +34.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Sinner | 70c | 10,000$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,999.98 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac47…d234backed Mensik | 30c | 7,500$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,250 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Mensik | 31c | 3,545$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,442.2 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf4…e3a6backed Mensik | 25c | 1,838$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,378.2 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce6…2e69backed Sinner | 75c | 1,333$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fd…abf9backed Sinner | 76c | 1,000$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.16 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Sinner | 69c | 844.65$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.81 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6094…e860backed Mensik | 30c | 772.99$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.99 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Mensik | 31c | 726.19$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.07 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Mensik | 24c | 546.31$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.16 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ec…b81ebacked Sinner | 71c | 500$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3d…7a79backed Sinner | 75c | 413.6$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.2 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…ec00backed Mensik | 29c | 387.9$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.41 | 97 | 38.1%37 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Sinner | 78c | 382.91$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Sinner | 29c | 216.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.13 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbf…f4e6backed Sinner | 71c | 200.48$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.34 | 142 | 57%81 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Mensik | 30c | 188.21$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.21 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Sinner | 76c | 181.61$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.43 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x346a…892bbacked Sinner | 74c | 169.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.79 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef27…bd29backed Sinner | 60c | 167.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…ea75backed Mensik | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7c…3a6abacked Sinner | 76c | 132.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Mensik | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Mensik | 26c | 90.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.97 | 200 | 43.5%87 W · 113 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x411c…bb45backed Sinner | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed Sinner | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 240 | 55%132 W · 108 L | -15.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77d2…0af8backed Sinner | 73c | 48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x979b…dd0abacked Sinner | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Sinner | 55c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Sinner | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -11.0wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3cff…b344backed Sinner | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0879…52fabacked Sinner | 75c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ac…0b32backed Sinner | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5)this page
- Mensik vs. Sinner: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Mensik vs. Sinner: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Mensik vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Mensik vs. Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Qatar Open: Jakub Mensik vs Jannik SinnerMensik won
- Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs SinnerMensik won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.