Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2025-12-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3ee0a01ee049697d256f02523e78b0b2e294eac14076dc78a6236bb3aaabfa7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cb4…f28cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,305$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 10c | 754.13$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.96 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 19c | 473.05$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.88 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 24c | 295.83$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 21c | 124$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Yes | 19c | 118.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked No | 79c | 106.74$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 80cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…73f9backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Yes | 21c | 89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 24c | 87.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed No | 77c | 84$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 19c | 78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Yes | 22c | 76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 68cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed No | 78c | 49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…cbf7backed Yes | 22c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…dbdcbacked No | 79c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…de52backed No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…4938backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…ebfebacked No | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2025-12-14?this page
- Will FC Schalke 04 vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2025-12-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.