Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Schalke 04 vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x382c5b329bc2a0e793645fed76af9202e89d71c32025b4192bddc5fb97950456
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed No | 62c | 411.31$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.31 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 351.48$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.4 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b3…6bfcbacked No | 62c | 323$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 21c | 244.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 38c | 180.17$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.47 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Yes | 27c | 147$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -46%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 26c | 134$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…16cabacked Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Yes | 27c | 126$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Yes | 26c | 125$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Yes | 27c | 108$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Yes | 27c | 107$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d32…fe50backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +5.3wins | +0.66per pick | 9cpaid | +798.5%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 25c | 82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…71a2backed No | 75c | 79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Yes | 26c | 78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Yes | 27c | 72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 22c | 54.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed No | 73c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Yes | 43c | 48.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 119 | 52.1%62 W · 57 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…a4ccbacked No | 74c | 47.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…f2d1backed No | 73c | 47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…2c48backed No | 73c | 47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…7f8cbacked No | 73c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…0730backed No | 74c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +206.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…73c9backed No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…042fbacked No | 73c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed No | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…9d10backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…5754backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed No | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed No | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…ddaebacked No | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 73cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed No | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b3…0d89backed No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbba…e95bbacked No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe91…4462backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 78c | 20.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d10…e17cbacked No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…5d12backed No | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…cec2backed No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce01…5c2abacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x870f…08ebbacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Schalke 04 vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2025-12-14?No won
- Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2025-12-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.