TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
AM Gamingof AM Gaming, ex-RUBY
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,975
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$67,871

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,975 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked ex-RUBY64c29,561$18,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,918.965,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked AM Gaming40c23,253$9,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,968.5775652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed AM Gaming35c3,734$1,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,424.1414051.4%72 W · 68 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed AM Gaming36c3,000$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,909.9649935.1%175 W · 324 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ab9…d821backed AM Gaming35c2,371$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,533.494055%22 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked AM Gaming36c1,993$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,283.136243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed ex-RUBY32c1,810$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.212154.5%66 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed ex-RUBY65c1,549$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked AM Gaming71c1,474$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.5963157.1%360 W · 271 L+40.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed AM Gaming65c1,050$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.336,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed AM Gaming37c1,000$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63060848%292 W · 316 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a05…cd14backed ex-RUBY1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101190.8%1 W · 118 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde24…e804backed ex-RUBY29c1,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2905935.6%21 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-1.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88b0…f8d8backed AM Gaming37c999.93$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.5521744.7%97 W · 120 L+8.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed ex-RUBY64c907$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.4826054.2%141 W · 119 L-0.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66ea…6791backed AM Gaming36c829.67$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.6117948%86 W · 93 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d8c…3816backed AM Gaming50c806.95$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.951040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked AM Gaming36c706.11$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.9152636.5%192 W · 334 L+18.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8248…c0b2backed ex-RUBY56c699.98$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.9920750.7%105 W · 102 L-9.9wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked AM Gaming36c665.1$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.6616245.1%73 W · 89 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed ex-RUBY64c644.88$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.1915743.9%69 W · 88 L-7.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa487…9439backed AM Gaming35c619.54$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.715349.7%76 W · 77 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3c0…28f8backed ex-RUBY29c590.57$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1732055%11 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed ex-RUBY65c555.56$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.0146555.1%256 W · 209 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed ex-RUBY65c555.55$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.1159755.4%331 W · 266 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed ex-RUBY63c550$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.539245.9%180 W · 212 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe9b…cbe5backed AM Gaming36c500$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32044244.1%195 W · 247 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed ex-RUBY64c465.42$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.94,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed AM Gaming38c463.5$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.7459049.7%293 W · 297 L-31.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed ex-RUBY31c452.55$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.2476546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d58…eef4backed AM Gaming36c428$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.92250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e6f…3be7backed AM Gaming35c405.89$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.898936%32 W · 57 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc754…4b1dbacked AM Gaming35c403$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.9534140.8%139 W · 202 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked ex-RUBY43c397.57$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.0916235.8%58 W · 104 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe564…221abacked AM Gaming38c371.5$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.331,07832%345 W · 733 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked AM Gaming68c360.99$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.064,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e83…00aabacked AM Gaming34c322$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.5217142.1%72 W · 99 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b0c…d43abacked AM Gaming35c316$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.5646447.6%221 W · 243 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked AM Gaming35c301.1$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.9527753.8%149 W · 128 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33ad…a123backed ex-RUBY6c290.07$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1712946.5%60 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed ex-RUBY64c278$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.9274054.6%404 W · 336 L+15.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed AM Gaming37c241.04$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.9421545.6%98 W · 117 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb3d…58f5backed ex-RUBY64c237.72$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.237855.3%209 W · 169 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed AM Gaming36c228.33$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.1328549.5%141 W · 144 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a1d…8986backed ex-RUBY62c222.61$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.3119451.5%100 W · 94 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x787f…d40cbacked AM Gaming35c199.17$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.5927940.5%113 W · 166 L-16.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x59aa…3376backed AM Gaming70c197.97$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.72862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4063…ea8dbacked AM Gaming78c193.24$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.248344.6%37 W · 46 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed ex-RUBY64c184.25$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.0216346.6%76 W · 87 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed AM Gaming33c183.92$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.2346243.3%200 W · 262 L+1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed AM Gaming34c160$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.657641.1%237 W · 339 L-21.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a7f…edb5backed ex-RUBY64c159.1$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x206c…2b8dbacked AM Gaming35c157.4$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.666744.8%30 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedd0…731cbacked ex-RUBY64c157.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10033060.9%201 W · 129 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x55ab…40e8backed ex-RUBY25c156.2$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7115134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef20…8f64backed AM Gaming35c155$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.7512334.1%42 W · 81 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed AM Gaming36c151.33$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.8523732.9%78 W · 159 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x741a…ea3ebacked AM Gaming71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.851283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick66cpaid+28.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe46b…934dbacked ex-RUBY64c137.02$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick70cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5b5…1cb9backed ex-RUBY64c131.88$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e85…01fcbacked ex-RUBY56c131.64$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked AM Gaming50c130$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.53,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed AM Gaming36c130$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.665946.6%307 W · 352 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed AM Gaming35c118.15$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.161,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cff…6471backed ex-RUBY59c114.31$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.344440.9%18 W · 26 L-5.1wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-19%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6cad…48b5backed AM Gaming34c108.8$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.572755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba17…5c67backed ex-RUBY64c102.03$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3719052.6%100 W · 90 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0241…fd36backed ex-RUBY62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6240155.1%221 W · 180 L+1.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc6a…9a1fbacked AM Gaming36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646100%6 W · 0 L+3.2wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+119.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4915…0a12backed AM Gaming37c94.59$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.59475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+98.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a19…86c8backed ex-RUBY41c93.2$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.216330.2%19 W · 44 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf43f…3b20backed ex-RUBY32c89.91$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.772458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked ex-RUBY64c81.91$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6774653.5%399 W · 347 L+9.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfce…5c3ebacked AM Gaming34c81.09$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.528537.6%32 W · 53 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed AM Gaming77c79.37$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2657641.5%239 W · 337 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked AM Gaming37c76.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5165548.9%320 W · 335 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc278…3144backed ex-RUBY27c73.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf099…d75cbacked AM Gaming71c70.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.286567.7%44 W · 21 L+6.9wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+12.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8c8b…7a07backed ex-RUBY55c68$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.421159.7%126 W · 85 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad2c…4eecbacked AM Gaming38c63.86$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7951252.1%267 W · 245 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d72…a791backed AM Gaming36c60.27$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.816754.5%91 W · 76 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6d4…2f1ebacked ex-RUBY57c60$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.229156.7%165 W · 126 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e1e…2a7dbacked ex-RUBY60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304858.3%28 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca5…4342backed ex-RUBY64c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed AM Gaming40c43$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.014,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x08e0…f4a0backed ex-RUBY65c42.85$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.983856.1%470 W · 368 L+31.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97c4…9991backed AM Gaming47c42.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2812155.4%67 W · 54 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdad6…6287backed AM Gaming38c40.75$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+161.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6936…8f48backed ex-RUBY64c39.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253161.3%19 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x259b…a2d3backed AM Gaming53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.74666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+40.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed AM Gaming37c33.44$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.962,06150.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L-18.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc88…37b8backed ex-RUBY65c30.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed AM Gaming36c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.351,00355.7%559 W · 444 L+24.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8616…3bb0backed ex-RUBY63c29.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8955749.7%277 W · 280 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb998…ff7fbacked AM Gaming68c29.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.24785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick72cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce38…2513backed AM Gaming69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.992770.4%19 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+21.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x87b4…2e5cbacked AM Gaming71c25.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.54425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-64.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c27…21a9backed ex-RUBY63c24.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1723158.4%135 W · 96 L-1.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed ex-RUBY63c22.51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.261,84847.6%879 W · 969 L-55.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb476…ddc2backed ex-RUBY64c22.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3812351.2%63 W · 60 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.