TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Will Elliot Cadeau win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament for the 2026 Mens NCAA Tournament?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,575
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,457

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,575 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x661d…4dc6backed No39c342.73$132 inLost-$132.0431646.8%148 W · 168 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes16c270.99$43 inWon+$227.8735852%186 W · 172 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No13c231.4$29 inLost-$29.42333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-44.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdacf…3c74backed Yes13c161$21 inWon+$140.072100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+412.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd960…92d4backed Yes13c100$13 inWon+$87.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+678.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes32c67$21 inWon+$45.62742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbe4d…26ffbacked Yes70c51.4$36 inWon+$15.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb49…1fbebacked No59c27.8$17 inLost-$16.517951.9%41 W · 38 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9c2…276fbacked Yes46c24.74$11 inWon+$13.46450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes54c22.01$12 inWon+$10.1318147%85 W · 96 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xceb7…8b33backed No67c18.45$12 inLost-$12.299554.7%52 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.