CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Fake do Biru - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3fcbc8e647450d742b8e654fee0dfaa4b8770cf0bcba6c7391fb6409009e053
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fake do Biruof Keyd, Fake do Biru
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Fake do Biru | 56c | 5,266$2,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,332.48 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…3887backed Keyd | 54c | 3,895$2,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,087.36 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Keyd | 34c | 2,586$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.65 | 1,513 | 57.2%865 W · 648 L | +65.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Fake do Biru | 55c | 1,543$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.65 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…eda7backed Keyd | 35c | 1,300$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.53 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked Keyd | 43c | 1,135$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.47 | 292 | 35.6%104 W · 188 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Fake do Biru | 58c | 596.87$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.73 | 217 | 37.3%81 W · 136 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fca…e8edbacked Keyd | 8c | 564.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Keyd | 31c | 463.76$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.21 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…5379backed Fake do Biru | 63c | 409.24$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.72 | 314 | 52.2%164 W · 150 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Fake do Biru | 58c | 406.85$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.65 | 260 | 75%195 W · 65 L | +23.6wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Keyd | 40c | 372.35$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.81 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Fake do Biru | 70c | 319.3$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.05 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed Keyd | 31c | 280.56$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 559 | 50.3%281 W · 278 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Keyd | 6c | 275.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Fake do Biru | 76c | 207.48$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bf…4bebbacked Keyd | 47c | 206.19$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.82 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Fake do Biru | 66c | 156.57$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 485 | 62.7%304 W · 181 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Keyd | 24c | 123.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 1,304 | 26.5%345 W · 959 L | -89.4wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd43f…0bb0backed Fake do Biru | 63c | 102.79$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 381 | 31%118 W · 263 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69bf…0c5dbacked Fake do Biru | 58c | 101.23$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Keyd | 31c | 91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 313 | 28.4%89 W · 224 L | -21.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed Fake do Biru | 57c | 85.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 696 | 35.3%246 W · 450 L | -49.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…d48abacked Fake do Biru | 55c | 76.81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Keyd | 36c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Keyd | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 644 | 39.8%256 W · 388 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Fake do Biru | 66c | 57.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Fake do Biru | 62c | 55.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 361 | 51.8%187 W · 174 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Fake do Biru | 58c | 55.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Keyd | 41c | 53.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked Keyd | 22c | 48.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 164 | 51.8%85 W · 79 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce24…306ebacked Keyd | 32c | 45.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…c22ebacked Keyd | 34c | 42.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed Fake do Biru | 53c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 182 | 53.8%98 W · 84 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Fake do Biru | 56c | 30.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Fake do Biru | 47c | 26.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…cf14backed Fake do Biru | 47c | 26.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0a…1584backed Fake do Biru | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc32…32f8backed Fake do Biru | 74c | 19.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Fake do Biru - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Fake do Biru (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #3 PlayoffsFake do Biru won
- Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Fake do Biru - Map 1 WinnerKeyd won
- Map Handicap: FDB (-1.5) vs Keyd (+1.5)Keyd won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.