TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Fake do Biru (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #3 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Fake do Biruof Keyd, Fake do Biru
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,340
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$72,188

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,340 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7857…bab6backed Fake do Biru73c3,504$2,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.765160.8%31 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa17c…b2e6backed Fake do Biru65c3,247$2,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,126.477566.7%50 W · 25 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Keyd41c3,167$1,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,285.756,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Fake do Biru66c3,037$2,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.9657358.8%337 W · 236 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Keyd36c2,370$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.53,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a5c…a375backed Keyd34c2,163$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.355238.5%20 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb85…eda7backed Keyd69c2,063$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,423.251643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Fake do Biru54c1,888$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.461,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Keyd40c1,805$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.065,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Keyd35c1,373$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.342,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5f…0689backed Fake do Biru63c1,120$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.229142.9%39 W · 52 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbf3…aa3abacked Fake do Biru65c897.29$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.7123249.1%114 W · 118 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Keyd36c892$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.7121737.3%81 W · 136 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Keyd41c844.9$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3485,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3c59…3887backed Keyd60c822.53$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.7721941.1%90 W · 129 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Keyd34c638.72$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.074,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Keyd26c599.02$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.073,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed Keyd31c591.02$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.0729831.5%94 W · 204 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa535…9e5ebacked Keyd34c588.44$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.7210062%62 W · 38 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+21.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Keyd39c587.64$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.212,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Keyd33c586.99$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.311,57335.3%556 W · 1,017 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfa5…01b3backed Fake do Biru52c558.06$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.667145.1%32 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked Fake do Biru58c556.03$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.5318341%75 W · 108 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Keyd35c541.5$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.211,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Fake do Biru77c521.5$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.532,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Keyd25c500.44$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1252,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Fake do Biru69c469.04$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.117148%82 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Keyd45c442.53$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.457,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed Keyd35c380.28$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.125147.8%120 W · 131 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Fake do Biru45c360.05$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.791,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Keyd34c314.35$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.481,54733.9%524 W · 1,023 L-73.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked Fake do Biru70c308.47$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3621536.3%78 W · 137 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed Keyd36c295.72$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.4638739.5%153 W · 234 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Fake do Biru68c252.1$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8326075%195 W · 65 L+23.6wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+11.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked Fake do Biru40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15043237.7%163 W · 269 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Keyd32c241.3$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.896058.3%35 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Keyd18c223.7$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.721,18122.5%266 W · 915 L+3.6wins0.00per pick22cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d62…5409backed Fake do Biru44c219.64$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12348562.7%304 W · 181 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed Keyd19c210.58$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7128434.9%99 W · 185 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xced8…221ebacked Keyd35c200$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6970038.9%272 W · 428 L-29.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1791…3e87backed Keyd27c174.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7239946.4%185 W · 214 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed Fake do Biru29c174.46$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.8620353.2%108 W · 95 L+1.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed Keyd32c166.72$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9455950.3%281 W · 278 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad84…1897backed Keyd64c153.88$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8119443.3%84 W · 110 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Fake do Biru60c151.01$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.454348.6%264 W · 279 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Keyd36c150.93$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3778043.7%341 W · 439 L-21.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed Keyd40c150$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6032844.5%146 W · 182 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f1…8cc6backed Fake do Biru69c142.23$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.09250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3a1…3529backed Fake do Biru77c140.53$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.324548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Keyd29c135.61$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.721,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf6b…a179backed Fake do Biru67c132.33$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.575349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Keyd45c129.66$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.831,35252%703 W · 649 L+29.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Fake do Biru60c124.84$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.291,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e2f…9123backed Fake do Biru38c120.67$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.245438.9%21 W · 33 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Fake do Biru29c118.68$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.2617849.4%88 W · 90 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf11a…1002backed Fake do Biru41c117.56$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.3627848.6%135 W · 143 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Fake do Biru67c115.26$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3657641.5%239 W · 337 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Fake do Biru64c112.93$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.183,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ad…68c9backed Fake do Biru80c105.65$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.324051.7%124 W · 116 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Keyd38c104.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5927554.9%151 W · 124 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Keyd36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3640247.8%192 W · 210 L+11.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1752…682bbacked Keyd19c98.74$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.036555.4%36 W · 29 L+8.0wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+26.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed Keyd32c96.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.321,21640.1%488 W · 728 L-65.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Fake do Biru50c94.09$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.642,06150.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L-18.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x873d…f7a9backed Fake do Biru76c90.78$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.791764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Keyd35c90$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.51,28137.8%484 W · 797 L+5.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe564…221abacked Keyd38c88.68$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.71,07832%345 W · 733 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Keyd30c86.25$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7731328.4%89 W · 224 L-21.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x82cf…3d55backed Fake do Biru77c84.98$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8110752.3%56 W · 51 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Keyd24c83.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6545224.3%110 W · 342 L-52.4wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-45.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x669d…3a77backed Keyd37c82.62$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.57728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick62cpaid-50.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfcb6…ef3abacked Fake do Biru47c78.28$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.491758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8027…cf81backed Fake do Biru46c77.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7510655.7%59 W · 47 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93c8…adffbacked Fake do Biru52c69.1$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1714046.4%65 W · 75 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13af…b19fbacked Keyd35c68.54$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.033148.4%15 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-22.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x90df…a209backed Fake do Biru74c66.29$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.074546.7%21 W · 24 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x155b…d7babacked Fake do Biru70c65.68$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7840652.2%212 W · 194 L+22.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Keyd52c64.69$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3428660.1%172 W · 114 L+17.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaee4…471fbacked Keyd39c63.84$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1135752.9%189 W · 168 L+22.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Keyd38c63.51$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.882,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Keyd53c61.37$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.531,04645%471 W · 575 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Fake do Biru63c57.69$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3539239.8%156 W · 236 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x839f…c2cebacked Keyd46c50.87$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1616451.8%85 W · 79 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f7a…3f62backed Keyd71c49.82$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.37560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6924…1455backed Keyd61c49.15$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.981346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4b4…37d2backed Fake do Biru40c48.2$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.92944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5625…6c2abacked Fake do Biru73c46.38$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5236151.8%187 W · 174 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Keyd49c45.68$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.581,10950.5%560 W · 549 L-3.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1812…0db6backed Fake do Biru36c45.2$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.923333.3%11 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb19f…1c86backed Keyd34c42.34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.48033.8%27 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d72…5f50backed Fake do Biru70c41.24$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.371560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+14.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4470…c22ebacked Keyd35c41.19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.427536%27 W · 48 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58f2…692ebacked Fake do Biru60c40.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.417150.3%86 W · 85 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b60…76d5backed Fake do Biru73c40.79$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9937841.8%158 W · 220 L-33.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-30.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed Fake do Biru64c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.415965.4%104 W · 55 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbb4…9ed0backed Fake do Biru68c39.78$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.571968.4%13 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8526…72aabacked Fake do Biru47c35.68$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9119050%95 W · 95 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca0b…3c12backed Keyd55c35.38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.467459.5%44 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Fake do Biru61c34.74$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4147260%283 W · 189 L+31.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Keyd62c34.41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.262,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.