Serie A · resolved market
Udinese Calcio vs. AS Roma: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4056f24b13851046082872d7d6f716e16b0eeb8f5a89ed2b04ff5269665c122
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked Over | 18c | 2,349$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.87 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 80c | 1,375$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 19c | 1,250$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.5 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 19c | 744$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.36 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 19c | 489.47$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 22c | 298.38$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.78 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd25e…f458backed Over | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb94…04f4backed Over | 17c | 248.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +12.4wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc58b…cba8backed Over | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 9c | 115.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Over | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Over | 18c | 62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Udinese Calcio vs. AS Roma: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)Udinese Calcio won
- Udinese Calcio vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Udinese Calcio vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5Under won
- Udinese Calcio vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5Under won
- Udinese Calcio vs. AS Roma: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.