Serie A · resolved market
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb067423b4e20e541d4c977d433f3bccf4152d94734895a321c84ea5359ac7864
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Udinese Calcioof AS Roma, Udinese Calcio
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Udinese Calcio | 79c | 23,302$18,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,913.04 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed AS Roma | 22c | 19,087$4,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,248.2 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Udinese Calcio | 77c | 6,286$4,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,445.57 | 223 | 48.4%108 W · 115 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked AS Roma | 24c | 4,669$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.21 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Udinese Calcio | 77c | 2,505$1,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.48 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked AS Roma | 24c | 2,253$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.76 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked AS Roma | 23c | 2,174$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked AS Roma | 17c | 2,005$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.1 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed AS Roma | 18c | 1,250$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Udinese Calcio | 77c | 834.45$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.92 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked AS Roma | 17c | 470.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked AS Roma | 24c | 314.73$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.54 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccc…dbcdbacked AS Roma | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked Udinese Calcio | 79c | 231.33$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Udinese Calcio | 77c | 224.54$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd25e…f458backed AS Roma | 24c | 212.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked AS Roma | 25c | 200.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 127 | 44.1%56 W · 71 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed AS Roma | 23c | 174$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked AS Roma | 20c | 168.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed AS Roma | 24c | 165.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Udinese Calcio | 78c | 153.84$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e3…395cbacked AS Roma | 23c | 143.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed AS Roma | 22c | 128$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cff…15d1backed AS Roma | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Udinese Calcio | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed AS Roma | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked AS Roma | 22c | 72.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Udinese Calcio | 78c | 63.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Udinese Calcio | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 90 | 78.9%71 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Udinese Calcio | 77c | 46.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked AS Roma | 24c | 42.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…8e56backed Udinese Calcio | 78c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe113…375dbacked Udinese Calcio | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…6613backed Udinese Calcio | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Udinese Calcio | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…89c4backed Udinese Calcio | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa15…95e3backed Udinese Calcio | 78c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…26c0backed Udinese Calcio | 79c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked Udinese Calcio | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b1…cac1backed Udinese Calcio | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a39…bf2abacked Udinese Calcio | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 73cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…6ab2backed Udinese Calcio | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Udinese Calcio | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Udinese Calcio | 80c | 12.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)this page
- Udinese Calcio vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Udinese Calcio vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5Under won
- Udinese Calcio vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5Under won
- Udinese Calcio vs. AS Roma: O/U 3.5Under won
- Udinese Calcio vs. AS Roma: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.