Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd41204d71a8a0c833c44da01f8ee7a06643cae68e8b411b494fa92c7c51979d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 12c | 1,289$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 13c | 770.93$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.71 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 11c | 460.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 14c | 396.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 358.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 17c | 332$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 5c | 300.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 252.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 15c | 227.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 16c | 218.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 19c | 209$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 6c | 205.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 14c | 200.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 195.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 14c | 157.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 10c | 151.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…94b8backed Yes | 11c | 119.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 107$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 105.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 16c | 92.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 15c | 69.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…862dbacked Yes | 17c | 65.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 65.62$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 75c | 56.83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 76c | 32.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb7…91c4backed No | 77c | 15.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 14.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 84°F or higher on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on May 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.