Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3d50a9afff75c9130a1908de07928c090411e007a5873af20db0048214944d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 78c | 507.05$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.66 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 48c | 495.86$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.86 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 11c | 475.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 53c | 455.65$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.28 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 78c | 425.79$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.58 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 3c | 399.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…9d1bbacked Yes | 48c | 395.99$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.27 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 35c | 371$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 345$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.93 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed No | 6c | 333.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 32c | 319.93$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.09 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 295$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 77c | 236.59$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 37c | 200$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.66 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 66c | 200$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.73 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 51c | 195.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.13 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 40c | 185.76$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.33 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 33c | 175.83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.09 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 36c | 171.34$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.26 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 151.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 147.49$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.47 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 29c | 144.52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 72c | 139.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 137.07$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.35 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 58c | 113.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked No | 40c | 113.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 25c | 112.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.14 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 25c | 111$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 74c | 109.44$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.78 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 37c | 104.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.34 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 51c | 100.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 100.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 43c | 100.16$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.16 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 27c | 100.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…7efbbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 60c | 99.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 51c | 99.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 36c | 90.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf644…a9afbacked No | 74c | 89.54$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.51 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 71c | 84.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 84.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…eed8backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 44c | 78.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 39c | 73.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.27 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 65.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 62.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 24c | 46.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…2b99backed No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 42.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 41.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 41.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 40.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 63c | 40.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…478abacked No | 50c | 39.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 67c | 39.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 49c | 37.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 78c | 37.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 69c | 35.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed Yes | 31c | 35.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 67c | 35.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 77c | 33.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 76c | 33.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 58c | 32.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…cc7dbacked No | 42c | 30.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf760…09e0backed Yes | 61c | 29.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…864cbacked No | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 51c | 27.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 72c | 26.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 45c | 25.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 58c | 25.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 58c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 23.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe681…19f8backed No | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…7c22backed No | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…3666backed No | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x020d…9280backed No | 68c | 19.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 75c | 17.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 71c | 16.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 66c | 16.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 16.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…afc6backed No | 65c | 16.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 84°F or higher on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.